Long-form ETF and portfolio analysis that computes the figures other write-ups quote — effective holdings, drawdown behaviour, factor exposure, cost drag.https://themulden.com/enhttps://themulden.com/posts/sharpe-sortino-or-calmar-choosing-right/https://themulden.com/posts/sharpe-sortino-or-calmar-choosing-right/The three ratios differ only in what they call "risk" in the denominator: Sharpe uses total volatility, Sortino uses downside volatility, Calmar uses...Wed, 09 Sep 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/factor-crowding-and-alpha-decay-what/https://themulden.com/posts/factor-crowding-and-alpha-decay-what/Documented return predictors decay after they are published — roughly 58% lower post-publication than in the original sample, per McLean & Pontiff (2016) —...Tue, 08 Sep 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/duration-and-convexity-what-bond-etf/https://themulden.com/posts/duration-and-convexity-what-bond-etf/Duration, not credit, is the dominant risk in high-quality bond ETFs — and TLT carries roughly three times BND's. Convexity is real but it is a second-order...Mon, 07 Sep 2026 15:00:00 GMTMacro & Marketshttps://themulden.com/posts/can-valuation-predict-returns-using/https://themulden.com/posts/can-valuation-predict-returns-using/Valuation metrics like Shiller CAPE and earnings yield explain a meaningful slice of 10-to-15-year equity returns, but almost none of next year's — the...Sun, 06 Sep 2026 15:00:00 GMTMacro & Marketshttps://themulden.com/posts/why-median-wealth-trails-average-wealth/https://themulden.com/posts/why-median-wealth-trails-average-wealth/Average wealth sits well above median wealth because compounded returns are right-skewed — a handful of large outcomes pull the mean up while the typical...Sat, 05 Sep 2026 15:00:00 GMTMacro & Marketshttps://themulden.com/posts/the-real-cost-of-tail-risk-hedging-put/https://themulden.com/posts/the-real-cost-of-tail-risk-hedging-put/Protective puts pay off precisely when you need them, but the continuously rolled premium is a persistent drag — the academic estimate is a few percent per...Fri, 04 Sep 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/the-low-volatility-anomaly-why-boring/https://themulden.com/posts/the-low-volatility-anomaly-why-boring/The low-volatility anomaly — lower-risk stocks earning competitive or better risk-adjusted returns — has survived decades of out-of-sample testing, but the...Thu, 03 Sep 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/absolute-momentum-as-risk-switch-what/https://themulden.com/posts/absolute-momentum-as-risk-switch-what/Absolute (time-series) momentum uses an asset's own past return as a binary risk switch: hold when the trend is positive, step aside when it turns negative....Wed, 02 Sep 2026 15:00:00 GMTMacro & Marketshttps://themulden.com/posts/fractional-kelly-disciplined-way-to/https://themulden.com/posts/fractional-kelly-disciplined-way-to/Full Kelly maximizes long-run compound growth in theory, but it assumes you know your edge exactly — a condition that essentially never holds with a...Tue, 01 Sep 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/monte-carlo-vs-4-rule-simulating/https://themulden.com/posts/monte-carlo-vs-4-rule-simulating/The 4% rule is a single conclusion drawn from one country's worst historical sequence; Monte Carlo is a method that asks how often a plan survives across...Mon, 31 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/direct-indexing-vs-etfs-when-owning/https://themulden.com/posts/direct-indexing-vs-etfs-when-owning/An ETF is a single tax lot from the holder's perspective: you can only harvest a loss when the whole fund is underwater. Direct indexing holds the...Sun, 30 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/the-diversification-return-why/https://themulden.com/posts/the-diversification-return-why/A rebalanced portfolio can earn a higher compound (geometric) return than the weighted average of its parts — even if no single holding beats the others....Sat, 29 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/how-concentrated-is-your-index-really/https://themulden.com/posts/how-concentrated-is-your-index-really/A fund's holding count is a headline number; the effective number of holdings — the count an equal-weighted portfolio would need to match the same...Fri, 28 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/securities-lending-quiet-revenue-stream/https://themulden.com/posts/securities-lending-quiet-revenue-stream/Most large index ETFs quietly lend out their holdings to short sellers and other borrowers, earning fee income that can partly or fully offset the headline...Thu, 27 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/premium-and-discount-to-nav-what-it/https://themulden.com/posts/premium-and-discount-to-nav-what-it/An ETF's market price and its net asset value (NAV) are two different numbers; the gap between them is the premium or discount, and it is a signal about...Wed, 26 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/how-etfs-barely-pay-capital-gains-tax/https://themulden.com/posts/how-etfs-barely-pay-capital-gains-tax/ETFs rarely distribute capital gains because they hand appreciated securities to authorized participants "in kind" rather than selling them for cash — a...Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/the-hidden-cost-of-turnover-how/https://themulden.com/posts/the-hidden-cost-of-turnover-how/Factor ETFs carry a cost the expense ratio never shows: the trading friction of periodic reconstitution and rebalancing, which is absorbed inside net asset...Mon, 24 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/covariance-shrinkage-why-ledoit-wolf/https://themulden.com/posts/covariance-shrinkage-why-ledoit-wolf/The sample covariance matrix is an unbiased but noisy estimate; its worst errors sit in the extreme eigenvalues, which is exactly where a minimum-variance...Sun, 23 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/minimum-variance-vs-maximum/https://themulden.com/posts/minimum-variance-vs-maximum/Minimum variance and maximum diversification start from the same covariance matrix but optimize different things — one minimizes portfolio volatility, the...Sat, 22 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/is-value-cheap-reading-value-spread/https://themulden.com/posts/is-value-cheap-reading-value-spread/A wide value spread tells you the price of the value trade, not its timing — it raises the odds without dating them. Over the last five years VTV and VUG...Fri, 21 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTMacro & Marketshttps://themulden.com/posts/momentum-crashes-rare-violent-drawdowns/https://themulden.com/posts/momentum-crashes-rare-violent-drawdowns/MTUM has compounded at 16.3% over ten years, but its risk is negatively skewed: the danger sits in rare, sharp reversals rather than in day-to-day...Thu, 20 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/correlation-regimes-why-diversification/https://themulden.com/posts/correlation-regimes-why-diversification/Correlation is not a constant you can plug into a portfolio model — it is state-dependent, and it tends to rise toward one precisely during the sell-offs...Wed, 19 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTMacro & Marketshttps://themulden.com/posts/risk-parity-from-scratch-why-equal-risk/https://themulden.com/posts/risk-parity-from-scratch-why-equal-risk/A 50/50 dollar split is not a 50/50 risk split — a volatile asset dominates a portfolio's variance long before it dominates its dollar weight. Equal risk...Tue, 18 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/volatility-targeting-how-scaling/https://themulden.com/posts/volatility-targeting-how-scaling/Volatility targeting scales exposure inversely to expected volatility so the portfolio holds a roughly constant risk budget — it works because volatility is...Mon, 17 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/vymi-vs-idv-international-dividend-etfs/https://themulden.com/posts/vymi-vs-idv-international-dividend-etfs/IDV pays a materially higher distribution yield (5.5% vs 3.7%), but that gap did not translate into higher total return over five or ten years — VYMI edged...Sun, 16 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/xlc-vs-vox-communication-services/https://themulden.com/posts/xlc-vs-vox-communication-services/XLC and VOX both label themselves "communication services," but the sector is functionally a large-cap growth vehicle: Meta, Alphabet, and Netflix dominate...Sat, 15 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/hedj-vs-unhedged-international-should/https://themulden.com/posts/hedj-vs-unhedged-international-should/Currency hedging removes exchange-rate volatility from a foreign equity position — the realized data shows it lowered both total volatility and drawdown...Fri, 14 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/avdv-vs-avuv-does-small-cap-value/https://themulden.com/posts/avdv-vs-avuv-does-small-cap-value/Over the trailing five years, AVDV (developed ex-US small-cap value) compounded at 14.3% with 17.4% volatility, while AVUV (US small-cap value) compounded...Thu, 13 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/iemg-vs-vwo-two-emerging-market-giants/https://themulden.com/posts/iemg-vs-vwo-two-emerging-market-giants/IEMG and VWO are near-twins in size and cost, but they track different index families — and the index provider decides which countries even count as...Wed, 12 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/ita-vs-xar-defense-and-aerospace-etfs/https://themulden.com/posts/ita-vs-xar-defense-and-aerospace-etfs/ITA and XAR own the same sector but weight it differently — ITA is capped market-cap and concentrated; XAR is modified equal-weight with a persistent size...Tue, 11 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/xbi-vs-ibb-equal-weight-vs-cap-weight/https://themulden.com/posts/xbi-vs-ibb-equal-weight-vs-cap-weight/XBI weights biotech names roughly equally, tilting hard toward small- and mid-cap clinical-stage companies; IBB is cap-weighted and dominated by a handful...Mon, 10 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/cibr-vs-bug-vs-hack-cybersecurity-etfs/https://themulden.com/posts/cibr-vs-bug-vs-hack-cybersecurity-etfs/All three funds sell the same story — pure-play cybersecurity exposure — but their five-year realized returns span a wide range (7.2% to 14.7% CAGR), and...Sun, 09 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/ura-vs-urnm-vs-nlr-uranium-miners-vs/https://themulden.com/posts/ura-vs-urnm-vs-nlr-uranium-miners-vs/URA and URNM express the uranium thesis through mining equity; NLR blends miners with nuclear utilities and fuel-cycle names, and that structural difference...Sat, 08 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/icln-vs-tan-clean-energy-etfs-after/https://themulden.com/posts/icln-vs-tan-clean-energy-etfs-after/Over the trailing decade both funds compounded positively — ICLN at 9.8% and TAN at 11.1% annualized — but the last five years erased most of that story,...Fri, 07 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/ijr-vs-iwm-vs-vb-three-small-cap-blend/https://themulden.com/posts/ijr-vs-iwm-vs-vb-three-small-cap-blend/IJR, IWM, and VB are all called "small-cap blend," but they track three different indexes — S&P SmallCap 600, Russell 2000, and CRSP US Small Cap — and...Thu, 06 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/vo-vs-ijh-overlooked-mid-cap-allocation/https://themulden.com/posts/vo-vs-ijh-overlooked-mid-cap-allocation/VO and IJH both call themselves "mid-cap," but they track different indices with different rules — the S&P MidCap 400 (IJH) applies an earnings screen and...Wed, 05 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/target-date-funds-vs-diy-three-fund/https://themulden.com/posts/target-date-funds-vs-diy-three-fund/The headline fee gap between a Vanguard target-date fund and a self-built three-fund portfolio is roughly 0.04% a year — real, but far smaller than most...Tue, 04 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/arkk-vs-qqq-disruptive-innovation-vs/https://themulden.com/posts/arkk-vs-qqq-disruptive-innovation-vs/Over the trailing five years QQQ compounded at 15.6% annually while ARKK compounded at −8.1% — the two funds did not just diverge in degree, they diverged...Mon, 03 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/dbc-vs-pdbc-vs-gsg-what-broad-commodity/https://themulden.com/posts/dbc-vs-pdbc-vs-gsg-what-broad-commodity/All three hold futures, not physical barrels or bushels — so the return you receive is spot price movement plus (or minus) roll yield, and the roll term is...Sun, 02 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/kweb-vs-fxi-vs-mchi-three-very/https://themulden.com/posts/kweb-vs-fxi-vs-mchi-three-very/These three funds share a "China" label but are not three flavors of the same trade: KWEB is an internet-sector fund, FXI is a state-heavy large-cap fund,...Sat, 01 Aug 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/qyld-vs-jepi-vs-divo-three-covered-call/https://themulden.com/posts/qyld-vs-jepi-vs-divo-three-covered-call/The three funds sell options in structurally different ways, and over the trailing five years the highest-yielding fund (QYLD, 5.9%) delivered the lowest...Fri, 31 Jul 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/bndx-vs-bnd-does-adding-international/https://themulden.com/posts/bndx-vs-bnd-does-adding-international/BNDX (international bonds) and BND (US bonds) have delivered nearly identical 10-year CAGRs — 1.5% and 1.4% respectively — which is not a coincidence,...Thu, 30 Jul 2026 15:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/mub-vs-bnd-when-municipal-bonds-beat/https://themulden.com/posts/mub-vs-bnd-when-municipal-bonds-beat/On stated yield, BND (3.95%) pays more than MUB (3.16%) — but MUB's income is exempt from federal tax, so the honest comparison is the tax-equivalent yield,...Wed, 29 Jul 2026 15:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/ewy-vs-ewt-vs-kweb-geography-of-ai-chip/https://themulden.com/posts/ewy-vs-ewt-vs-kweb-geography-of-ai-chip/"Korea," "Taiwan," and "China internet" are marketing labels; under the hood, EWY is largely a memory-chip bet, EWT is a TSMC-centric logic-foundry bet, and...Mon, 27 Jul 2026 23:00:00 GMTMacro & Marketshttps://themulden.com/posts/how-to-rebalance-into-drawdown-without/https://themulden.com/posts/how-to-rebalance-into-drawdown-without/Rebalancing bands turn a drawdown into a mechanical instruction — trim what held, add to what fell — without requiring you to identify the bottom. Over the...Sun, 26 Jul 2026 23:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/momentum-crashes-explained-why-most/https://themulden.com/posts/momentum-crashes-explained-why-most/Momentum earns a long-run premium but carries deep negative skew: the strategy's worst days cluster together and arrive precisely when a crowded trade...Sat, 25 Jul 2026 23:00:00 GMTMacro & Marketshttps://themulden.com/posts/memory-logic-and-equipment-whats/https://themulden.com/posts/memory-logic-and-equipment-whats/A semiconductor ETF is not one bet — it is a weighted basket of four different businesses (memory, logic/design, foundry, equipment) that peak and trough on...Fri, 24 Jul 2026 23:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/the-hidden-chip-bet-in-your-index-fund/https://themulden.com/posts/the-hidden-chip-bet-in-your-index-fund/Cap-weighting quietly routes the same handful of mega-cap AI and semiconductor names into QQQ, VOO, and VTI — so "broad" and "concentrated" have become a...Thu, 23 Jul 2026 23:00:00 GMTLong-Term Strategyhttps://themulden.com/posts/the-2026-semiconductor-selloff-part-2/https://themulden.com/posts/the-2026-semiconductor-selloff-part-2/The three funds look nearly identical on realized volatility and five-year max drawdown, but SMH's 5Y CAGR beat SOXX by roughly 4.9 percentage points a year...Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:00:00 GMTETF Analysishttps://themulden.com/posts/the-2026-semiconductor-selloff-how-most/https://themulden.com/posts/the-2026-semiconductor-selloff-how-most/From their June 2026 peaks, the two large U.S. semiconductor ETFs fell hard — SOXX −15.6% and SMH −12.7% — but their long-term uptrends stayed intact, which...Wed, 22 Jul 2026 04:50:43 GMTMacro & Markets